威胁认知、次等国家双向对冲与美国在南太地区对华隐蔽制衡

Threat Cognition,Bilateral Hedging of Secondary States,and the United States Covert Balance against China in the South Pacific

近年来,中国与南太平洋国家关系的快速发展强化了美国在该地区对中国的威胁认知。为维护自身的安全利益,美国希望拉拢南太平洋国家组成外部制衡联盟,公开制衡中国。但实际上除了其盟友澳大利亚、“自由联系国”、瑙鲁与图瓦卢外,其他南太平洋国家并不愿追随美国制衡中国。它们选择在中美之间双向对冲,这直接阻碍了美国“公开制衡”中国构想的落实。基于这些岛国所具有的制衡价值,美国转而使用“隐蔽制衡”这一策略,以彼此间的军事合作关系为纽带,同时以“保障海上安全”“打击非法捕鱼”等非传统安全问题为借口,试图通过军售、军援、联合军演、设立军事基地与签订《双边船员协议》等手段,加大对南太平洋国家的军事能力培养与军事力量渗透力度,以期在尊重这些国家的双向对冲战略和避免刺激中国的前提下“隐蔽”地提高它们的军事能力,进而在未来将这种能力转化为制衡中国的威慑力。

In recent years,the rapid development of relations between China and South Pacific countries has strengthened the United States cognition of the threat to China in the region.To maintain its regional dominance,the United States hopes to gather South Pacific countries to form an external balance coalition and openly balance China.But in reality,apart from its ally Australia,the“Free Association”,Nauru,and Tuvalu,other South Pacific countries are not willing to follow the United States to balance China.On the contrary,they chose to hedge bilaterally between China and the United States,which directly hindered the implementation of the US concept of“open balance”against China.However,based on the value of balancing possessed by these island countries,the United States has turned to the strategy of“Covert balance”,using military cooperation between each other as a link,and using non-traditional security issues such as“ensuring maritime safety”and“combating illegal fishing”as excuses,attempting to use methods such as military sales,military aid,joint military exercises,establishing military bases,and signing the Bilateral Crew Agreement,Intensify the cultivation of military capabilities and penetration of military forces in South Pacific countries,with the aim of“covertly”enhancing their military capabilities while respecting their bilateral hedging strategies and avoiding stimulating China,and ultimately transforming this capability into a deterrent to balance China in the future.