濮阳市气象因素与手足口病发病的相关性

Correlation Between Meteorological Factors and Incidence of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Puyang City

目的分析濮阳市2015—2019年手足口病流行趋势和气象因素的变化规律,探讨濮阳市气象因素与手足口病发病之间的关系,为濮阳市手足口病预警提供依据。方法收集2015—2019年濮阳市手足口病月发病资料和同期气象资料,数据整理利用Excel 2007,统计分析用R 4.2.2统计软件,手足口病发病资料作为因变量,气象因素作为自变量进行双变量Spearman相关分析和岭回归相关分析。结果濮阳市全年均有手足口病病例报告,发病集中于4—7月,有明显春末夏初季节性流行高峰。手足口病发病率与高温均值、低温均值、月降水量呈正相关(P<0.05),与平均气压呈负相关(P<0.05),与平均湿度无相关性(P>0.05)。对相关因素进行岭回归分析,得回归方程,方程有统计学意义,发病率的自然对数与高温均值呈正相关,与平均气压呈负相关(P<0.05)。结论濮阳市手足口病发病有明显季节性,气象因素对手足口病发病有重要影响,通过探讨气象因素与手足口病流行的关系,对于建立疾病早期预警具有重要意义。

Objective To analyze the epidemic trend and changes in meteorological factors of hand-foot-mouth disease in Puyang City from 2015 to 2019,explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Puyang city,and provide a basis for early warning of hand-foot-mouth disease in Puyang city.Methods Monthly incidence data and meteorological data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Puyang city from 2015 to 2019 were collected.The data was organized using Excel 2007,and R 4.2.2 statistical software was used for statistical analysis.Hand-foot-mouth disease incidence data were used as dependent variables,and meteorological factors were used as independent variables for bivariate Spearman correlation analysis and ridge regression correlation analysis.Results Cases of hand-foot-mouth disease had been reported throughout the year in Puyang city,with the epidemic concentrated from April to July,with a significant seasonal peak in late spring and early summer.The incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease was positively correlated with the mean value of high temperature,low temperature and monthly precipitation(P<0.05),negatively correlated with the mean pressure(P<0.05),and not correlated with the mean humidity(P>0.05).Ridge regression analysis was conducted on relevant factors,and the regression equation was obtained,and the equation was statistically significant.The natural logarithm of the incidence rate was positively correlated with the mean temperature,negatively correlated with the mean pressure(P<0.05).Conclusion The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Puyang city has obvious seasonality,and meteorological factors have an important impact on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.Exploring the relationship between meteorological factors and the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease is of great significance for establishing early warning of the disease.