黄河三角洲水资源-经济系统耦合协调的动态演化

Dynamic evolution of coupling coordination of water resources-economic system in the Yellow River Delta

黄河三角洲水资源-经济系统的协调发展是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要组成部分。以黄河三角洲19个县域单元为研究对象,采用耦合协调度模型、剪刀差等方法探究水资源-经济系统水平耦合协调的动态变化。研究发现:黄河三角洲水资源利用综合指数逐步提高,区域经济发展水平波动上升,耦合协调度小幅上升,耦合协调等级由“勉强协调”升至“初级协调”,剪刀差值呈现先上升后下降再上升的态势,说明10年间黄河三角洲水资源-经济系统正从磨合状态向协调状态发展。分县区水资源与经济发展的耦合协调度等级差异较大,动态演化曲线呈现“V型”“W型”“N型”“U型”等4种类型,以“V型”“W型”为主,表明各地区演化路径差异明显。总体来看,大部分县区经济发展以水资源为代价的现象有所缓解,水资源-区域经济系统逐步走向协调发展。

The coordinated development of water resources and economy in the Yellow River Delta is an important component of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.In this paper,19 county-level units in the Yellow River Delta are used as research objects,and the coupling coordination degree model and the scissors difference are used to explore the dynamic changes of the coupling coordination between water resources and economic system levels.The study found that:the overall index of water resources use in the Yellow River Delta gradually increased,the level of regional economic development fluctuated,the degree of coupling coordination increased slightly,the level of coupling coordination rose from"barely coordinated"to"primary coordination",and the value of scissors difference showed a trend of first increasing,then decreasing,and then increasing.indicating that the water resources-regional economic system in the Yellow River Delta was developing from the running-in state to the coordinated state in the past 10 years.The dynamic evolution can be divided into four types:"V-shaped","W-shaped","N-shaped"and"U-shaped".The"V"and"W"types are the main ones,indicating that the evolutionary paths of each region differ significantly.In general,the phenomenon of economic development in most counties and regions being at the cost of water resources has been reduced,water resources-regional economic systems moving towards harmonized development.