国家重点生态功能区与毗邻城市高质量发展水平测度及差异研究

Study on the Measurement of High Quality Development Levels and Differences between National Key Ecological Function Areas and Adjacent Cities

以陕西省重点生态功能区及其毗邻的重点开发区作为研究区域,从人口、生态、经济和社会四个系统构建高质量发展水平测度指标体系,运用CRITIC熵权法、引力模型、趋势移动平均模型等,对2006-2020年各城市的高质量发展水平进行了动态测度、系统差异比较、空间关联分析、发展趋势预测。主要结论如下:(1)陕北重点生态功能区的发展水平均值高于关中重点开发区、陕南重点生态功能区,城市间异质性明显。(2)关中重点开发区的人口、经济、社会强于两个重点生态功能区,生态弱于两个重点生态功能区。(3)各城市对其他城市的空间作用强度总和与高质量发展水平有较高的拟合度,高质量发展在区域间具有带动作用。(4)预计2021-2025年,除个别城市,重点生态功能区与重点开发区的高质量发展水平分别呈上升、下降趋势,但幅度均较小。基于高质量发展水平实际状态和未来趋势,区域间的联动、互助应更加灵活,探索形成高质量发展区支援低质量发展区的路径。

This paper takes the key ecological function area of Shaanxi Province and its adjacent key development zone as the empirical research area,constructs a high quality development level measurement index system from the four systems of population,ecology,economy and society,and uses CRITIC entropy weight method,gravity model,trend moving average model and other methods.The dynamic measurement,systematic difference comparison,spatial correlation analysis and development trend prediction of the high quality development level of each city from 2006 to 2020 were carried out.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the average development level of the key ecological function zone in northern Shaanxi is higher than that in Guanzhong key development zone and southern Shaanxi key ecological function zone,and the heterogeneity among cities is obvious.(2)The population,economy and society of Guanzhong key development zone are stronger than those of the two key ecological function zones,but the ecology is weaker than that of the two key ecological function zones.(3)The total spatial effect intensity of each city on other cities has a high degree of fit to the level of high quality development,and high quality development plays a driving role in regional development.(4)It is expected that from 2021 to 2025,except for some cities,the high quality development level of key ecological functional zones and key development zones will show an upward trend and a downward trend respectively,but the magnitude is small.Based on the actual status and future trend of high quality development level,regional linkage and mutual assistance should be more flexible,and ways to form high quality development areas to support low quality development areas should be explored.