基于三水源新安江模型的三河口水库洪水预报

Flood Forecasting for Sanhekou Reservoir Based on the Sanshuiyuan Xin’anjiang Model

三河口水库是陕西省引汉济渭工程调蓄中枢,准确预报三河口水库的入库洪水,对保证工程安全指导水库的科学调度具有重要的意义。利用三水源新安江模型建立三河口水库洪水预报模型,选用2010—2019年间27场历史洪水,通过自动优化算法和人机交互率定相结合的方式,进行模型参数的率定,选用2020—2021年间7场洪水进行检验,检验期模拟成果全部合格,平均确定性系数为0.96,预报方案精度达到甲等。模型方案可用于三河口水库洪水预报,为水库防洪调度提供一定参考。

Sanhekou Reservoir serves as the central storage facility of Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project.Accurately forecasting the inflow flood of Sanhekou Reservoir is of significant importance for ensuring the safety of the project and enabling scientifically planned reservoir operations.By utilizing the Sanshuiyuan Xin’anjiang model,a flood forecasting model for Sanhekou Reservoir is established.Historical flood data from 2010 to 2019,comprising 27 flood events,are employed for model parameter calibration through a combination of automatic optimization algorithms and interactive human-computer interaction.Additionally,seven flood events from 2020 to 2021 are selected for model validation,and all simulation results during the validation period are qualified,with an average coefficient of determination of 0.96.The forecast accuracy of the proposed model reached the highest level.This model can be used for flood forecasting in Sanhekou Reservoir,providing valuable references for reservoir flood control and operation decisions.