干旱传播研究进展与展望Ⅰ--干旱传播含义、特征、类型与研究方法

Progress and prospects in drought propagation research part I:Meaning,characteristics,types,and research methods

在回顾干旱传播概念和内涵的基础上,明确提出干旱传播全环节的详细定义,阐述干旱传播的累积、衰减、滞后及延长特征,并重点就累积性与滞后性提炼了有关进展。按干旱传播环节、干旱传播时空特征两种方法划分干旱传播的类型,从线性回归、对数函数、小波分析、Copula函数、因果分析、贝叶斯网络和随机森林7个方面、从单一水文模型模拟和多个模型集合模拟两大方面,分别归纳统计方法、水文模拟方法在干旱传播研究领域的应用。

Based on the review of the concept and connotation of drought propagation,a detailed definition of the entire process of drought propagation is provided and the accumulation,attenuation,lagging,and lengthening characteristics of drought propagation are expanded on.Progress in the aspects of accumulation and lag is emphasized.Drought propagation is classified into different types based on the process and spatiotemporal characteristics.The statistical methods,including linear regression,logarithmic function,wavelet analysis,Copula function,causal analysis,Bayesian network,and random forest,as well as hydrological simulation methods,including single hydrological model simulation and multiple model ensemble simulation,are summarized and discussed regarding their applications in drought propagation research.