可再生能源发电侧储能项目经济评价研究

Research on Economic Evaluation of Renewable Energy Generation Side Energy Storage Projects

由于风光发电具有不稳定性,储能成为“双碳”目标下可再生能源占高比例的新型电力系统稳定保障的重要支撑。基于实物期权理论,考虑具体应用情况、投资决策灵活性和不确定性条件,构建了可再生能源发电侧储能系统估值模型;通过布朗运动描述电价、储能投资成本、碳交易价格的随机变化,再运用反向动态规划及加入对偶变量方差缩减技术的最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟对问题进行求解。以某风电场发电侧储能项目为例,与传统方法对比了模型的有效性。以结果稳定性为前提,对项目的经济可行性进行了敏感性分析,探讨了碳排放交易机制、调频辅助服务和不同储能激励政策对可再生能源发电侧储能项目投资决策的影响。结果表明,尽管上述因素能对项目产生积极的促进作用,但仍无法达到吸引投资者即刻投资的目标。构建稳定的碳交易体系、辅助服务交易市场配合合理的政策激励、促进储能技术进步,能有效刺激投资。

Due to the instability of wind and solar power generation,energy storage becomes an important support for a new type of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy under the“double carbon”target.Based on real option theory,considering the application-specific requirements,flexibility of investment decision-making,and uncertainty,the evaluation model of energy storage system on the generation side of renewable energy is established,and random changes in electricity prices,energy storage investment costs,and carbon trading prices are described through Brownian motion,then the inverse dynamic programming and the least square Monte Carlo simulation with the dual variable variance reduction technique are used to solve the problem.Taking an energy storage project on the power generation side of a wind farm as an example,the effectiveness of the model was verified by comparing with traditional methods.On the premise of the stability of the results,the sensitivity analysis of the economic feasibility of the project is carried out,and the effects of carbon trading mechanism,frequency modulation auxiliary service and different energy storage incentive policies on investment decision-making of renewable energy generation side energy storage projects are discussed.The results show that,although the above-mentioned factors can play a positive role in promoting the project,they still cannot reach the goal of attracting investors’immediate investment.The construction of a stable carbon trading system,a market for ancillary services and reasonable policy incentives,and the promotion of energy storage technology can effectively stimulate investment.