江苏省人口出生率时空演变与影响因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of birth rate in Jiangsu Province

国家发展离不开人口发展,而人口出生率又是人口发展水平的主要评价指标之一,体现着一个国家内人口世代更替平衡的重要标准。文章运用GeoDa和SPSS软件,通过莫兰指数分析人口出生率的时空演化规律,构建多元线性回归模型分析人口出生率变动的主要影响因素。发现:①江苏省各市存在空间正自相关性,高-高集聚区大多集中在江苏省西北部,低-低集聚区大多集中在江苏省腹部地区,高-低聚集区存在扩张趋势;②在岗职工平均工资、基本养老保险参保人数、婴儿死亡率与人口出生率呈负相关,初婚人数与人口出生率呈正相关。

National development is inseparable from population development,and the birth rate is one of the main evaluation indicators of the level of population development,reflecting an important standard of the balance of population replacement from generation to generation in a country.In this paper,using GeoDa and SPSS software,the temporal and spatial evolution of birth rate is analyzed by Moran index,and a multiple linear regression model is constructed to analyze the main factors affecting the change of birth rate.It is found that:①There is a positive spatial autocorrelation in various cities in Jiangsu Province,the high-high concentration areas are mostly concentrated in the northwest of Jiangsu Province,and the low-low concentration areas are mostly concentrated in the hinterland of Jiangsu Province,there is an expansion trend in the high and low concentration areas;②the average wage of on-duty workers,the number of people insured in basic old-age insurance and infant mortality are negatively correlated with the birth rate,while the number of first marriages is positively correlated with the birth rate.