中国宏观经济叙事的转变与展望(1978—2025):历史演进、共识逻辑和政策机制

The Transformation and Prospects of China′s Macroeconomic Narrative(1978—2025):Historical Evolution,Common Logic and Policy Mechanism

宏观经济叙事有着经济学共同叙事的逻辑自洽性,包含了分配、规制表达和福利体验等多方面,涉及了各类社会主体的接受性。宏观经济学具有经验主义式的叙事风格,更重视经济发展的时间序贯特征,即一连串的事件组成的发展进程,在历史过程中人们相互共鸣形成了共同叙事,形成了相互协调的分工协作和协作稳定。从宏观叙事的时代背景、经济共识、激励机制和政策部门责任等四个方面,对中国1978年以来宏观经济叙事进行梳理,总结计划经济到改革开放初期的综合平衡理论、有计划商品经济下的宏观叙事、中国特色社会主义市场经济下基于出口导向的宏观叙事、高速增长与资产建构的宏观叙事、迈向高质量发展的宏观叙事探索等五个阶段的中国宏观经济叙事及其转变。提出中国正在面临国家治理现代化和公共财政体系改革、货币供给体系改革、政府配置资源体系的改革、构建社会等非经济因素的“正反馈”机制和向高水平对外开放转变的新阶段。

Macro narrative generally refers to macroeconomic narrative,including the institutional reforms,stable policies and growth incentives for the policy authorities to respond to the macroeconomic situation.Macro narrative has the logical coherence of economic co-narrative,and includes multiple aspects such as distribution,regulatory expression,and welfare experience,involving the acceptance of various social entities.Macroeconomics has a narrative style of empiricism,and pays more attention to the time sequential features of the economic growth composed of a series of events,in which people resonate with each other to form a common narrative,and form a coordinated division of labor,cooperation and stability in the course of historical process.From the four aspects of the era background,economic consensus,incentive mechanism and the authority responsibilities,this paper combs and sums up,in the five stages of China′s macroeconomic narrative and transformation into high-quality economic growth,the macroeconomic narrative of China since 1978,the comprehensive balance theory from the planned economy to the early stage of reform and opening-up,the macro narrative under the planned commodity economy,that based on export-oriented market economy of the socialism with Chinese characteristics,and that of high-speed growth and assets construction.It also proposes that China is facing a new stage of"positive feedback"mechanism by non-economic factors,such as the national governance modernization,the public finance system reform,the money supply system reform,the government′s resource allocation system reform,and the social construction,thus a new stage with a shift towards high-level opening-up to the outside world.