高等教育溢价变动:就业结构效应还是技能价格效应?

Changes in Higher Education Premium:Employment Structure Effect or Skill Price Effect?

中国高等教育溢价在刘易斯转折前后从上升转为下降,从需求的角度提出,数字信息技术应用过程中对就业机会的改变和岗位工资结构的影响是高等教育溢价变动的重要原因。对此,利用2010-2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,对大学生劳动力的就业结构变动、岗位技能工资结构变动及其对高等教育溢价变动的贡献率进行了研究。研究发现:大学生劳动力在就业结构变动过程中,出现了从高技能岗位向低技能岗位转移的现象,特别是2012年以后就业降级的规模超过了就业升级的规模,这是高等教育溢价趋势转变的一个原因。另外,数字信息技术应用过程中,技能工资结构收窄,大学生劳动力就业密集的认知型岗位工资增长放缓,而高中及以下劳动力就业密集的非常规操作型岗位工资增长加快,从而认知技能相对价格下降,成为高等教育溢价趋势转变的另一个原因。RIF分解表明,高等教育溢价变动的30%~35%来自就业结构调整,65%~70%来自岗位技能工资结构变动。

The premium of higher education in China turned from rising to declining after the Lewis turning.From the perspective of demand,this paper points out that the changes in employment opportunities and wage structure caused by the application of digital information technology are the important causes of the changes in higher education premium.Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018,this paper studies the employment structure of college labor force,the change of job skill wage structure,and their contribution to the premium of higher education.The research finds that the college labor force shifts from high-skilled occupation to low-skilled occupation.Especially after 2012,the scale of employment downgrade exceeds the scale of employment upgrade,which is one of the reasons for the changing of higher education premium.In addition,in the process of the application of digital information technology,the wage growth of cognitive jobs which concentrated with college workers slows down,while the wage growth of non-routine jobs which concentrated with below high school workers accelerates.Thus,the relative return of cognitive skills declining becomes another reason for the changing of the premium of higher education.RIF decomposition shows that 30%-35%of the change in higher education premium comes from the adjustment of employment structure,and 65%-70%comes from the change of job skill wage structure.