中国对RCEP成员国出口机电产品影响因素及潜力研究

Research on the influencing factors and potential of China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP member countries

机电产品是中国与RCEP成员国贸易往来中份额最大的商品,选取2012—2021年中国机电产品出口贸易数据,运用扩展引力模型和GTAP模型两种实证方法分析影响中国对RCEP成员国机电产品出口贸易的因素以及双方贸易潜力大小,实证结果显示:中国和区域内成员国的市场规模、经济体量、人民币对美元的汇率、地理位置的远近以及签订自由贸易协定是中国机电产品出口贸易的重要影响因素,且可以进一步发掘与RCEP成员国机电产品贸易潜力和合作空间。最后提出对策建议:中国应加快产业转型升级,提升机电产品质量,促进机电产品市场多元化发展;加强与RCEP成员国对话交流,提升合作水平;促进机电产品市场多元化发展,同时加强风险预测。

Mechanical and electrical products are the commodities with the largest share in the trade between China and RCEP member countries.This paper selects the export trade data of China’s mechanical and electrical products from 2012 to 2021,and uses two empirical methods,the extended gravity model and GTAP model,to analyze the factors affecting China’s export trade of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP member countries and the size of bilateral trade potential.The empirical results show that the market size,economic volume,the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar,geographical location and the signing of free trade agreements between China and regional member countries are important factors influencing China’s export trade of mechanical and electrical products,and it is possible to further explore the trade potential and cooperation space of mechanical and electrical products with RCEP member countries.Finally,this paper proposes that China should accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading,improve the quality of mechanical and electrical products,promote the diversified development of the mechanical and electrical product market,strengthen dialogue and exchange with RCEP member countries to enhance cooperation level and promote the diversified development of the mechanical and electrical product market while strengthening risk prediction.