RCEP的贸易和福利效应量化评估及对策研究——基于全球价值链区域化视角

Research on quantitative evaluation and countermeasures of the trade and welfare effects of RCEP --From the perspective of global value chain regionalization

基于全球价值链视角考察RCEP贸易的福利效应,发现贸易创造效应使得RCEP区域内的成员国增加出口值,对各成员国贸易具有正向影响。基于全球价值链区域化视角,分析了RCEP对成员国贸易影响的理论机制,进而研究了RCEP成员国的贸易发展现状并进行实证分析。根据研究结论,提出了向生产者驱动价值链方向转移、实现国内市场为导向推进产业升级、推进加工贸易向中国中西部地区转移、充分发挥本土优势完善国内产业链等对策建议。

Based on the perspective of global value chain,the welfare effect of RCEP trade is investigated.It is found that the trade creation effect makes the member countries in the RCEP region increase the export value,which has a positive impact on the trade of each member country.From the perspective of global value chain regionalization,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of RCEP’s impact on member countries’trade,and then studies the current trade development situation of RCEP member countries and makes an empirical analysis.According to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as shifting to the producer-driven value chain,promoting industrial upgrading with the domestic market as the orientation,promoting the transfer of processing trade to the central and western regions of China,and fully utilizing local advantages to improve the domestic industrial chain.