金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河流域水风光互补性分析

Analysis on the Complementarity of Hydro-Wind-Solar in Jinsha River,Yalong River and Dadu River Basins

把握水风光电源的多维发电特性及多能源之间的互补规律,对于优化配置调节性电源,促进新型电力系统的健康发展意义重大。聚焦四川电网金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河三江流域,研究水风光清洁能源发电特性,基于数理统计、相关分析等方法研究了流域内部以及跨流域间水风光出力互补规律。结果表明:大渡河水电丰枯出力差异最大,雅砻江流域水电年利用小时数最大,金沙江流域水电年发电量最大;大渡河流域风光利用小时数最高,金沙江流域光伏最稳定,但风电波动最大;三江流域内部水风光具有互补性,三江跨流域之间,水风光单一电源具有同步性,不同电源两两具有互补性。

It is of great significance to grasp the multi-dimensional power generation characteristics of hydro-wind-solar power sources and the complementary law between multiple energy sources for optimizing the allocation of regulatory power sources and promoting the healthy development of new power systems.Focusing on the Jinsha River,Yalong River and Dadu River basins in Sichuan Power Grid,the characteristics of water-wind-solar clean energy power generation is studied,and the laws of hydro-wind-solar output complementarity in basin and inter-basin are analyzed based on mathematical statistics and correlation analysis.The results show that:(a)the difference of hydropower output between wet and dry years in Dadu River is the largest,the annual hydropower utilization hours in Yalong River basin is the largest and the annual hydropower generation in Jinsha River basin is the largest;(b)the Dadu River basin has the highest number of wind and solar utilization hours,and the Jinsha River basin has the most stable solar output and largest wind power fluctuation;and(c)the hydro-wind-solar power in each river basin is complementary,but between three river basins,same power source has synchronization,and two different power sources are complementary.