The current and future of terrestrial carbon balance over the Tibetan Plateau

The contemporary carbon balance over the Tibetan Plateau is highly uncertain with a ten-fold difference between various estimates.In a warming world,the potential exists for a large carbon release from its permafrost which could compromise China’s 2060 carbon-neutral goal.Here,we used a satellite-and inventory-based approach,ecosystem models,and atmospheric inversions to estimate that the carbon sink was 33.12–37.84 TgC yr^(–1)during 2000–2015.The carbon sink induced by climate change and increasing CO_(2) levels largely overcompensated for a livestock grazing-induced carbon source of 0.38TgC yr^(-1).By 2060,the carbon sink is projected to increase by 38.3–74.5% under moderate to high emissions scenarios,with the enhanced vegetation carbon uptake outweighing the warming-induced permafrost carbon release.The restoration of degraded grassland could sequestrate an additional 9.06 TgC yr^(-1),leading to a total carbon sink of 57.78–70.52 TgC yr^(-1).We conclude that the Tibetan Plateau’s ecosystems absorbed two-and-a-half times the amount of its cumulative fossil CO_(2) emissions during 2000–2015 and that their carbon sinks will almost double in strength in the future,helping to achieve China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060.