冰湖溃决洪水威胁高亚洲基础设施

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten Asia’s infrastructure

青藏高原及其周边地区冰湖灾害频发,目前对其灾害特征及导致的破坏缺乏系统的分析.本研究旨在揭示冰湖灾害过去和未来的变化趋势及其对基础设施造成的影响,以指导区域及跨境流域冰湖灾害防控技术和策略的构建.研究梳理了1900-2022年间发生的298例冰湖灾害事件,发现其呈增长的趋势,尤其是1964年以来的部分冰湖灾害严重损坏了下游基础设施,不同类型冰湖灾害在空间分布、爆发和成灾特征等方面存在明显差异.例如,西斯帕冰川阻塞湖在2019-2022年连续爆发了5次溃决洪水,最近一次冲毁了下游中巴公路的桥梁和路基,影响中巴经贸.高山区冰川冰湖变化、交通和水电等基础设施及人口增长,致使冰湖灾害风险上升.为此,重大基础设施的规划应充分考虑相关风险,建立防控措施以保障人员和基础设施安全.

People and infrastructure in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings(TPS)face an increasing risk from glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)as the construction boom in transport and hydropower infrastructure coincides with a sustained and regional increase in outburst frequency.We have compiled an inventory of GLOF events since 1900 in the TPS,an area that acts as a key engine of environmental change in Asia[1],and examined the evolution and impact of recent floods from the surging Shisper Glacier that have destroyed homes and highways and could continue for several more years.We conclude that this ongoing increase in both exposure and glacio-climatic hazard poses a significant threat to Asia’s economic development.