金融制裁效力指数的构建和应用——以美国对俄罗斯金融制裁为例

Construction and Application of Financial Sanction Effectiveness Index:Take the U.S.Financial Sanctions against Russia as an Example

21世纪以来,金融制裁的使用日趋频繁和成熟,已成为美国对外经济政策的常态化工具。通过梳理2014—2022年美国对俄罗斯实施的各项金融制裁,基于政策量化思想和指数衰减函数构建了金融制裁效力指数,从政策目标、作用对象和参与主体总结其趋势特征,归纳俄乌冲突以来美国对俄罗斯金融制裁的新突破。为展现金融效力指数的应用,使用结构向量自回归模型实证验证美国金融制裁对俄罗斯卢布汇率、物价水平及出口商品的冲击。其启示是:中国应高度重视美西方对外经济金融制裁带来的严重冲击和影响;深入研究金融制裁的逻辑和规律;借鉴俄罗斯反制裁的创新方式,健全对外制裁和反制裁体系;通过国际组织建立国际经济金融制裁的约束机制;进一步优化中国经济金融对外开放政策。

Since the 21st century,the use of financial sanctions has become increasingly frequent and mature,has become a normal chemical tool of the United States.This paper reviews the various financial sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia from 2014 to 2022,constructs financial sanctions effectiveness index based on policy quantification and exponential decay function,summarizes its characteristics from the policy objectives,targets,participants,and the new breakthroughs of financial sanctions against Russia since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.In order to further demonstrate the application of financial sanction effectiveness index,this paper uses SVAR to verify the impact of the financial sanctions against Russia on the rouble exchange rate,price level and export commodities.The implication is that we should attach great importance to the severe impact and impact of the economic and financial sanctions imposed by the United States and the West.An in-depth study of the logic and law of financial sanctions against Russia;Learn from Russia's innovative way of counter-sanctions,improve China's foreign sanctions and counter-sanctions system;Establish a binding mechanism for international economic and financial sanctions through international organizations.