地铁工程事故案例库建立与风险评估研究

Construction of a Case Base for Subway Engineering Accidents and Risk Assessment Analysis

收集20多年来国内地铁工程施工累计的2 000余项事故案例及对应的经济损失数据,建立迄今地铁工程建设领域数量最多的事故案例数据库,且可持续进行数据的更新。利用事故案例及经济损失数据库,建立定量化的风险等级标准和事故统计分析、预测、风险估计计算模型,从而可根据工程所在的区域、工法、作业类型等条件,定量化估计发生某种类型事故的概率、经济损失和风险水平,有效地解决了地铁工程项目定量化安全风险评估和工程保险行业确定风险损失率的难题。研发基于工程事故案例的定量化安全风险评估系统,可按地区、城市、线路、工法、事故类型等条件查询发生某类事故的情况资料、发生的频率、经济损失等信息,实现统计分析、推演预测和定量风险估计等功能,并在全国20多个在建地铁城市的工程安全风险评估和保险项目中得到应用。

An extensive case base of over 2,000 accident cases and corresponding economic loss data have been collected from the last 20 years of domestic subway construction.This has resulted in the establishment of the largest database for subway construction accidents to date that is continuously updated.Based on this database,a quantitative risk level standard,accident statistical analysis,prediction and risk estimation calculation model have been developed.Project area,construction method,and operation type are some of the conditions used in estimating the probability of accidents,the resulting economic loss,and risk level.This solution also effectively determines the quantitative safety risk assessment of subway projects and loss rates within the engineering insurance industry.A query-based quantitative safety risk assessment system has been developed using engineering accident cases that can perform statistical analysis,deduction,and prediction of a specific accident type by region,city,line,construction method,and accident type.The system has been successfully applied in engineering safety risk assessment and insurance projects in over 20 cities currently under construction.