地方财政可持续性问题研究——基于国库数据视角

Study on Local Fiscal Sustainability——The Perspective Based on Treasury Data

新冠疫情爆发以来,我国经济增长受到较大冲击,财政收入持续回落,同时随着助企纾困、减税降费、地方债发行提速扩容、增值税留抵退税力度加大等政策的出台,地方财政收支矛盾日渐凸显,财政收支缺口呈持续扩大态势,地方财政可持续发展面临着严峻挑战。在分析当前青岛市财政运行状况的基础上,结合国库数据,构建了评估财政可持续性的综合指标——地方财政风险指数。从统计检验结果看,地方财政风险指数与财政债务余额之间具有极强的正相关性和同步性,这利于经济决策部门及时把握地方财政可持续发展运行态势。为进一步促进地方财政长期可持续发展,应促进财政收入提质增效、财政支出结构优化、加强债务风险预警与管理。

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020,China's economic growth has been greatly impacted,and the fiscal revenue has continued to decline.At the same time,with the introduction of policies such as helping enterprises to bail out,reducing taxes and fees,speeding up and expanding the issuance of local bonds,and increasing the tax rebate of value-added tax,the contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure is becoming increasingly prominent,the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure is expanding,and the sustainable development of local finance is facing severe challenges.In this context,based on the analysis of the current financial operation status of Qingdao,this paper combines the national treasury data to construct a comprehensive index for assessing fiscal sustainability-the local fiscal risk index.The statistical test found that there is a strong positive corelation and synchronization between local fiscal risk index and the balance of financial debt,which provides a treasury perspective for the construction of local financial sustainability indicators.In order to further promote the long-term sustainable development of local finance,this paper puts forwards suggestions on improving the quality and efficiency of fiscal revenue,optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure,and strengthening the early warning and management of debt risks.