人口结构变动下的住房需求与调控--基于洛阳“七普”数据的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Housing Demand and Regulation Under the Changes of Population Structure Based on the Data of Luoyang Seventh Population Census

基于七普数据分析洛阳市人口和家庭结构变动特征,包括少子化和老龄化突出、平均家庭规模缩减、人口流动持续上升等。根据人口结构变动对住房需求的影响分析洛阳市住房需求变化及趋势,包括住房需求增加但需求量减少、商品房有效需求下降、新增住房需求以改善性住房为主、拆迁需求和刚性住房需求较低等。结合洛阳市住房市场特征和存在问题,提出人口结构变动下的住房政策调控建议,包括优化住房结构;建立健全住房保障和供应体系,提供多维供给的产品结构;充分挖掘闲置和未开发土地,缓解土地供需矛盾等。

Based on the data of the seventh population census,this paper analyzes the characteristics of population and family structure changes in Luoyang,including the prominent number of children and aging,the reduction of average family size,and the continuous increase of population flow.According to the impact of population structure changes on housing demand,this paper analyzes the changes and trends of housing demand in Luoyang,including the increase of housing demand but the decrease of quantity demanded and the decrease of effective demand for commercial housing.The main demand for new housing is to improve housing condition,and the demand for demolition and rigid housing is still low.Based on the characteristics and existing problems of the housing market in Luoyang,this paper puts forward some suggestions on housing policy regulation under the changes of population structure,including optimizing the housing structure according to the changes of population structure,establishing and improving the housing security and supply system,and providing a multi-dimensional supply structure and fully excavating the idle and undeveloped land to alleviate the contradiction between land supply and demand.