新型电力系统电力电量平衡分析研究综述

Review on Electric Power and Energy Balance Analysis of New-generation Power System

在“双碳目标”的背景下,我国对于新能源的利用得到长足发展,构建适应新能源占比逐渐提高的新型电力系统成为首要目标。风光电源出力的强波动性与不确定性的特点,给电力系统电力电量平衡带来全新的“保供难”与“消纳难”挑战,传统电力电量平衡分析模式与方法难以适应新能源占比不断提高的新型电力系统应用。为此,面向新能源占比不断提高的新型电力系统提出电力电量供需平衡分析体系。首先,分析了新型电力系统中源、网、荷以及平衡资源各环节的多重不确定性因素;其次,探讨新能源占比不断提高的新型电力系统中电力电量平衡的计算方法;进一步,归纳新型电力系统电力电量平衡的分析方法与供需失衡风险预警模式;最后,对新型电力系统电力电量平衡分析能力提升的措施与建议进行展望,力争为未来新型电力系统规划、运行与仿真分析提供思路。

Under the background of“carbon peak and carbon neutralization target”,the utilization of new energy in China has made great progress,and the construction of a new-generation power system that adapts to the increasing proportion of new energy has become the primary goal.The characteristics of strong volatility and uncertainty of wind and solar power output bring new challenges of“difficult supply”and“difficult consumption”to the electric power and energy balance of the power system.The traditional power balance analysis model and method are difficult to adapt to the new-generation power system application with the increasing proportion of new energy.Therefore,this paper proposes a power and energy supply and demand balance analysis system for the new-generation power system with an increasing proportion of new energy.Firstly,the multiple uncertain factors of source,network,load,and balance resources in the new-generation power system are analyzed.Secondly,the calculation method of power and energy balance in the new-generation power system with the increasing proportion of new energy is discussed.Furthermore,the analysis method of power and energy balance and the risk early warning mode of supply and demand imbalance in new-generation power systems are summarized.Finally,the measures and suggestions for improving the power and energy balance analysis ability of the new-generation power system are put forward so as to provide ideas for the planning,operation,and simulation analysis of the new-generation power system in the future.