含高比例可再生能源的电力系统运行可靠性解析评估方法综述

Review of Analytical Methods for Operation Reliability Assessment of Power Systems with High-penetration Renewable Energy

随着“双碳”目标的推进,高比例可再生能源广泛接入,电力系统呈现出不确定性因素多、源荷变化快、多重随机性强等特点,给电网的安全稳定运行带来了新的挑战。解析法是最常用的运行可靠性评估方法之一,具有数学模型清晰、计算效率稳定、枚举状态关系明确等优势,有助于保障电力能源的安全可靠供应。从电力系统运行可靠性的概念和评估流程出发,归纳亟待解决的问题。在此基础上,从可靠性评估效率提升、考虑极端灾害的不确定性建模和序贯解析评估3个方面归纳了现有研究成果及其存在的不足。最后,展望了含高比例可再生能源的电力系统运行可靠性解析评估方法的未来研究方向。

With the promotion of the“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”target and the widespread integration of high-proportion renewable energy,power systems exhibit characteristics such as high uncertainty,rapid changes in supply and demand,and significant multiple randomness,which bring new challenges to the safe and stable operation of power grids.Analytical methods are commonly employed for assessing operational reliability and offer advantages such as clear mathematical models,stable computational efficiency,and well-defined relationships between enumerated states.These methods play a crucial role in ensuring the secure and reliable supply of electric power energy.This paper begins by exploring the concept and process of power system operational reliability and highlights the pressing issues that need to be addressed.Moreover,this paper summarizes existing research achievements and their limitations from the three aspects,such as efficiency improvement of reliability assessment,uncertainty modeling of extreme disasters,and sequential analytical evaluation.Finally,this paper discusses the future research of operation reliability assessment methods for power systems with high-penetration renewable energy.