统筹发展与安全视角下中国大中城市经济韧性与区域差异研究

Research on Economic Resilience and Regional Disparities of Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China from the Perspective of Coordinated Development and Security

统筹发展与安全,是防范和化解影响我国现代化进程中各类风险的战略选择。将1992—2021年划分为3个抵抗期和2个恢复期,在此基础上利用城市真实产出变化和预期产出变化比的方法,采用全球夜间灯光数据测度中国35个大中城市经济韧性,并从强化抵抗力和恢复力的层面揭示了统筹发展与安全的作用规律。研究显示,相较于抵抗期而言恢复期城市经济韧性更强,大中城市需要进一步提升抗击打能力,以安全保障发展。新冠肺炎疫情和中美经贸摩擦冲击下城市经济韧性创历史新低,表明在新的发展阶段,加强经济安全风险预警、增强城市产业体系抗击打能力刻不容缓。分区域来看,东部城市经济韧性在4大板块最高,中部城市次之,东北城市最低;南方地区的城市经济韧性均高于北方地区。我国城市经济韧性改进模式可以分为条件强化型、优势利用型、创新驱动型和制度优化型。结合城市经济韧性的演进特征,最后从提升发展动力安全性、发展空间安全性、发展环境安全性以及产业发展安全性的维度,归纳了可能的政策启示。

Considering development and security in a coordinated manner is a strategic choice to prevent and resolve various risks affecting China's modernization process.This study divides the period from 1992 to 2021 into three resistance periods and two recovery periods.Based on this,the economic resilience of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China is measured using the ratio of the change in real output and the change in expected output of cities as well as employing global nighttime light data.The research aims to reveal the role and patterns of coordinated development and security from the perspectives of strengthening resistance and recovery capabilities.The study shows that the economic resilience of cities during recovery periods is stronger compared to resistance periods,highlighting the need for these cities to further enhance their resistance capabilities to secure the development.Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the China-US economic and trade frictions,the economic resilience of cities reached historically low levels,indicating the urgent need to strengthen early warning of economic security risk and enhance the resistance capabilities of urban industrial systems in this new development stage.From a regional perspective,cities in the eastern region exhibit the highest economic resilience,followed by those in the central region,while cities in the northeast region have the lowest resilience.In general,cities in the southern region demonstrate higher economic resilience compared to those in the northern region.The study identifies four types of improvement models for China's urban economic resilience:condition enhancement type,advantage utilization type,innovation-driven type,and institutional optimization type.Lastly,based on the evolutionary characteristics of urban economic resilience,this paper summarizes potential policy implications from dimensions such as enhancing development dynamics security,development room security,development environment security,and industrial development security.