增加值贸易促进了世界经济周期的协同变化吗?

Does Value-Added Trade Promote Synchronized Changes in the World Economic Cycle?

随着国际分工格局的改变,全球价值链分工成为各国纵向分工的主要形式,相较于传统贸易,增加值贸易在经济周期传导中的作用得到了显著提升。基于2000—2014年中国、北美、欧盟以及亚太地区39个经济体的世界投入产出数据,运用WWZ方法分解出贸易增加值(DVA),进而以DVA为基础测算双边贸易强度,使用双向固定效应模型探究增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期协动性的影响。研究结果表明:第一,在垂直专业化生产背景下,增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期的协动性具有显著而稳健的正向效应,即中国与世界的增加值贸易来往越密切,中国与世界经济周期的协动性就越强;第二,一般贸易会导致经济周期的协同变化,即传统意义上的贸易对世界经济周期协动性会起到一定的作用,但其作用并不稳健。随着全球价值链分工模式的不断深入,增加值贸易逐渐替代传统贸易成为影响世界经济周期协动性的核心贸易渠道,这为中国在当前贸易保护主义抬头背景下如何重塑本国价值链或贸易格局,推进高水平对外开放,规避或降低贸易保护主义对未来经济发展的影响提供了参考。

With the changing pattern of international division of labor,global value chain specialization has become the primary form of vertical division of labor among countries.Compared to traditional trade,value-added trade has significantly enhanced its role in the transmission of economic cycles.Based on the world input-output data of 39 economies,including China,North America,the European Union,and the Asia-Pacific region,from 2000 to 2014,this paper employs the WWZ method to decompose trade value-added(DVA)and calculates bilateral trade intensity based on DVA.Subsequently,the study uses the two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact of value-added trade on the synchronicity of China's and the world's economic cycles.The research findings are as follows:First,under the context of vertical specialization in production,value-added trade has a significant and robust positive effect on the synchronization of China's and the world's economic cycles.In other words,the closer the value-added trade interactions between China and the world,the stronger the synchronization of their economic cycles.Second,general trade contributes to the synchronized changes in economic cycles,implying that traditional trade has a certain effect on the synchronization of the world's economic cycles,but its effect is not robust.With the continuous deepening of the global value chain specialization,value-added trade gradually replaces traditional trade as the core trade channel affecting the synchronization of the world's economic cycles.These research findings provide references for China to reshape its domestic value chain or trade pattern,promote high-level opening-up,and mitigate the impact of trade protectionism on future economic development in the context of rising trade protectionism.