基于STIRPAT模型的京津冀“碳达峰”预测研究

Prediction of carbon peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on STIRPAT model

为了解决京津冀地区碳排放量达峰问题,以河北省为例,研究京津冀碳排放达峰实现路径,对京津冀未来的碳排放量进行预测分析,建立以河北省2004-2021年碳排放相关数据为基础的STIRPAT碳排放预测拓展模型。设置了6个情景,通过综合考虑人口规模、人均GDP、城镇化率、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构数据的变化速度,模拟不同情景下京津冀2022-2040年的碳排放趋势,进而预测京津冀三地的“碳达峰”时间与碳排放峰值。结果表明:北京除清洁发展情景是在2030年达峰,其余情景均在2035年达到峰值;天津除经济放缓情景是在2030年达峰,其余情景均在2035年实现“碳达峰”;河北除基准情景在2035年达峰外,其余情景均是在2030年达到峰值。所提的碳排放预测拓展模型在考虑多情景分析下,就京津冀地区如何控制和减少碳排放量提出相关建议,可为京津冀低碳经济的发展提供一定的参考依据。

In order to solve the problem of early peak of carbon emissions the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,taking Hebei Province as an example,the realization path of peaking carbon emissions in the region was studied,and the future carbon emissions in the region were predicted and analyzed,the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction expansion model based on carbon emission data in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2021 was established.Six scenarios were set up to simulate the carbon emission trend from 2022 to 2040 under different scenarios by comprehensively considering the change rates of six data such as population size,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure,and to predict the carbon peak time and carbon emission peak of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The results show that:Except for the clean development scenario,which peaks in 2030,the other scenarios of Beijing will reach the peak in 2035.Except for the economic slowdown scenario,which is to peak in 2030,the remaining scenarios of Tianjin were to achieve carbon peak in 2035.In Hebei Province,except for the baseline scenario,which is to reach the peak in 2035,the remaining scenarios are to reach the peak in 2030.The proposed carbon emission forecast expansion model,considering multi-scenario analysis,puts forward relevant suggestions on how to control and reduce carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,and provides certain reference for the development of low-carbon economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.