新一轮国际粮价上涨:特征、原因、影响及应对

The New Round of International Food Price Rise:Characteristics,Causes,Effects and Countermeasures

国际粮食价格在近60年里经历了5次波动,2020年以来呈现新一轮上涨。新一轮上涨表现出粮价水平高、品种差异大的特征。本文认为新冠疫情、俄乌战争、全球气候异常及美国量化宽松货币政策等因素叠加共同推高了国际粮价,其中美国的量化宽松货币政策起主导作用。由于中国对国际粮食市场的依赖程度低,且中国粮食进口市场相对稳定,短期来看国际粮价上涨对中国粮食安全影响有限。但受中国钾肥进口量大、重大事件持续演化、国际粮食安全降至低水平等因素影响,长期来看国际粮价上涨仍将对中国粮食安全带来一定压力。为应对国际粮价上涨风险,本文从国内稳产保供、加强全球大宗商品价格风险监测预警、推进农产品进口多元化、培育跨国涉农企业等方面提出对策建议。

International food prices have fluctuated five times in the past 60 years and have risen again since 2020.The latest rise is characterized by high levels of food prices and large differences in varieties.This study argues that the combination of COVID-19,the Russian-Ukrainian war,global climate anomalies,and quantitative easing in the United States has driven up international food prices.Among them,the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States plays a leading role.Due to China’s low dependence on the international food market and the relative stability of the food import market,the rise in international food prices has a limited impact on China’s food security in the short term.However,because of the large import of potash fertilizer,major events continue to evolve,and the decline of international food security to a low level,the rise in international food prices will still bring some pressure to China’s food security in the long run.In order to cope with the risk of rising international food prices,this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of stabilizing domestic production and supply,strengthening the monitoring and warning of global commodity price risk,promoting the diversification of agricultural imports,and cultivating multinational agriculture-related enterprises.