基于智能网格的灞桥区温度预报检验与订正

Temperature Test and Rolling Correction Forecast of Baqiao Based on Intelligent Grid Forecast

基于灞桥区12个区域自动站数据,采用6种滚动订正法,对陕西智能网格气象预报系统DCOEF的2 m气温预报产品进行误差订正。结果表明,6种滚动订正法对DCOEF的2 m气温预报有不同程度订正效果:滑动误差回归订正效果最优,误差回归法和滑动双因子回归法次之;随预报时效延长,滑动双因子回归法较误差回归法和滑动误差回归法稳定性更好。

Based on the data of 12 automatic stations in Baqiao,this paper adopts six temperature rolling correction methods to correct the error of 2m temperature DCOEF forecast product of Shaanxi Intelligent Grid Weather Forecast System.The results show that the six rolling correction methods have different degrees of correction effects on the DCOEF’s 2m temperature forecast:the sliding error regression correction has the best correction effect,followed by the error regression correction method and the sliding two-factor regression correction method;the stability of sliding two-factor regression correction method is better than that of the error regression correction method and the sliding error regression correction method with the extension of prediction time.