东平湖流域洪涝灾害气象成因分析

Analysis of Meteorological Causes of Flood Disaster in Dongping Lake Basin

针对东平湖流域的致灾过程,筛选了典型的洪涝灾害个例,在保证资料完整的前提下,筛选出2007—2013年东平湖流域12个致灾天气过程,从整层形势场的平均场,结合12个单独个例进行分析,得出了以下结论:(1)副高边缘500 hPa短波槽的移动是造成夏季易诱发洪涝的暴雨天气的背景场,增强对流不稳定;(2)850 hPa切变线或切变线发展出的低涡系统是造成灾害的主要影响系统;地面场受850 hPa暖脊的影响,一般表现为倒槽或倒槽发展而成的气旋系统的影响。

Typical flood disaster cases were selected according to the disaster causing process of Dongping Lake basin.On the premise of ensuring the integrity of the data,12 disaster causing weather processes in Dongping Lake basin from 2007 to 2013 were selected.From the average field of the whole layer form field,combined with 12 individual cases,the following preliminary conclusions are formed:(1)The movement of 500 hPa short wave trough at the edge of subtropical high is the background field of rainstorm weather that is prone to cause floods in summer,Enhanced convective instability.(2)The low vortex system developed by the 850 hPa shear line or shear line is the main impact system causing disasters;In addition,the surface field is affected by the 850 hPa warm ridge,which generally manifests as the influence of the inverted trough or the cyclone system developed by the inverted trough.