中国城市住房可支付指数研究

A study on China Urban Housing Affordability Index

住房可支付测度是住房可支付的核心问题。本文根据马斯洛需求层次理论、消费理论和产权选择理论构建住房可支付指数体系。本文使用2010-2021年中国135个城市房价、房租、收入与消费数据测度房租与房价可支付性及其联合分布,发现传统住房可支付标准会高估住房支付困难程度,中国平均收入者基本上不存在房租不可支付,但非理性预期下存在房价不可支付。坚持租购并举的住房制度与“房住不炒”定位有助于实现中国居民“住有所居”。

The measurement of housing affordability is the key issue of housing affordability.In terms of Maslovian needs hierarchy theory,consumption theory and tenure choice theory,this paper constructs a new system of housing affordability index.Employing the city-level databases of housing prices,rental prices,household income and consumption in China's 135 cities over 2010-2021,this paper measures the housing price affordability,rental price affordability and their joint distributions.It suggests that traditional criteria of housing affordability index are higher than that in this paper.The Chinese average income households could afford rental prices,but could not afford housing prices under irrational expectation.Accordingly,the China's housing system in supporting both rental market and homeownership market and preventing housing speculation are conducive to realize household home dream.