乌克兰危机对全球化肥供求格局的影响及中国的应对

The Impact of Ukraine Crisis on Global Fertilizer Supply and Demand and China's Response

作为二战以来欧洲地区规模最大的冲突,乌克兰危机的升级短期内减少了俄罗斯、乌克兰的国际化肥供给,欧美等发达经济体的全方位制裁阻碍了俄罗斯、白俄罗斯的化肥贸易,地区局势不稳叠加新冠疫情导致的贸易限制措施减少了化肥的出口。粮食危机引致的局部地区农业生产的扩大、农产品价格的升高带动了化肥需求。国际化肥价格在供给和需求的双重作用下急剧飙升,已逼近1960年以来的历史最高水平。化肥的国际价格大幅高于国内价格给中国创造了机遇,但天然气、煤炭、石油等化肥原料成本的提高不利于化肥产业的发展,尤其对国内高度依赖进口的钾肥需求构成挑战。应紧密追踪乌克兰危机的最新发展动态,及时研判敏感性事件对国际供应链的影响;通过多元化进口战略,降低钾肥贸易风险;走科技创新之路,推动化肥产业的转型升级。

As the largest conflict in Europe since World War II,Ukraine crisis,which has escalated in February 2022,reduces fertilizer supply of Russia and Ukraine to the international market in a short period of time.The export of fertilizer from Russia and Belarus is further restricted by the economic sanctions of the United States,the European Union and other industrialized economies.Trade restrictions caused by insecurity in the region and the COVID-19 also hinder the export of fertilizer.The expansion of agricultural production and the increase in the price of agricultural products in some areas caused by the food crisis drive up the demand for fertilizer.International fertilizer price has soared under the dual impact of supply and demand,approaching the highest level in history since 1960.The international price of fertilizer is significantly higher than China's domestic price,which creates certain opportunities for China.However,the increase in the cost of natural gas,coal,oil and other fertilizer raw materials is not conductive to the development of China's fertilizer industry,which poses a greater challenge to domestic potash fertilizer imports.Therefore,we should closely follow the latest developments of the Ukraine crisis,and timely study and judge the impact of sensitive events on the international supply chain.The paper suggests to reduce the risk of potash fertilizer trade through diversified import strategy.It's wise to take the road of scientific and technological innovation to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's fertilizer industry.