建立中印俄自贸区对区域宏观经济及农产品贸易的影响评估

Assessment of the Impact of Establishing China-India-Russia FTA on Regional Macroeconomics and Agricultural Trade

在国际局势逐渐恶化的背景下,构建中印俄自贸区对三国的可持续发展具有重大意义。本文采用GTAP(第十版)数据库,动态模拟了中印俄自由贸易区框架下三国经济效应的变动以及对其农产品贸易的可能影响。结果显示,建立中印俄自贸区将提高三国的GDP水平,增加社会福利,改善贸易条件,扩大贸易规模,实现三国的互利共赢。在农产品贸易方面,中国在劳动密集型农产品与加工农产品方面具备一定比较优势,印度在土地密集型农产品上具备良好的发展前景,俄罗斯在畜产品方面具备较大竞争力。为提高自贸区建立的可行性,中国应积极推进三国的政治互信程度,推动基础设施建设互联互通,加强人文交流合作,并对建立自贸区开展可行性论证。在贸易往来中,中国还应积极出口具有比较优势的农产品,保护敏感性产品。

Against the background of the gradually deteriorating international situation,the construction of China-India-Russia FTA is of great significance for the sustainable development of the three countries.This paper uses the tenth edition of GTAP database to dynamically simulate the changes in the economic effects of the three countries under the framework of the China-India-Russia FTA and the possible impacts on their agricultural trade.The results show that the establishment of the China-India-Russia FTA will increase the level of GDP of the three countries,increase social welfare,improve the terms of trade,expand the scale of trade,and achieve mutual benefits for all three countries.In terms of agricultural product trade,China has certain comparative advantages in labor-intensive agricultural products and processed agricultural products,India has good development prospects in land-intensive agricultural products,and Russia has greater competitiveness in livestock products.To improve the feasibility of establishing the FTA,China should actively increase the level of political mutual trust among the three countries,promote the interconnection of infrastructure construction,strengthen humanities exchanges and cooperation,and conduct feasibility studies on the establishment of the FTA.In trade exchanges,China should also actively export agricultural products with comparative advantages and protect sensitive products.