人口老龄化对家庭金融脆弱性的影响——基于CFPS2010—2018微观数据的实证检验

The Impact of Population Aging on Household Financial Vulnerability--An Empirical Test Based on CFPS 2010—2018 Micro Data

随着我国人口老龄化程度不断上升,人口老龄化对微观家庭金融风险的影响不容忽视。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010—2018年面板数据,运用面板Logit和Probit回归模型实证分析人口老龄化对家庭金融脆弱性的影响、作用机制和异质性。结果表明:人口老龄化显著提升了家庭金融脆弱性;人口老龄化可通过增强风险厌恶、降低信贷可得性和强化数字鸿沟等渠道提升家庭金融脆弱性;人口老龄化对家庭金融脆弱性的影响在不同受教育水平、健康水平的家庭或城乡之间存在差异。上述结论有助于更全面地理解家庭金融脆弱性的形成机理,进一步完善应对人口老龄化冲击的相关政策。

At the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan,the population aged 60 and above in China will approach 300 million,making issues related to population aging the most immediate and pressing concerns for people.In fact,as population aging deepens,the associated financial risk issues are becoming increasingly prominent.Based on panel data from the China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)spanning from 2010 to 2018,this paper empirically tests the impact,mechanism,and heterogeneity of population aging on household financial vulnerability using Panel Logit and Probit regression models.The findings are as follows.Firstly,population aging has a significant impact on increasing household financial vulnerability.Secondly,the impact of population aging on family financial vulnerability differs among various education levels,health levels,and urban and rural areas.Thirdly,population aging contributes to higher household financial vulnerability by increasing risk aversion,reducing credit availability,and widening the digital divide.This paper addresses the limitations of micro research in the field of financial vulnerability,enhances our understanding of the formation mechanism of household financial vulnerability,and offers a fresh perspective for comprehensively comprehending the relationship between population aging and household financial vulnerability.The findings presented in this paper contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the factors resulting in household financial vulnerability and can assist in refining relevant policies to address the impact of population aging.