气候变化、收入流动与农户内部收入不平等

Climate Change,Income Mobility and Income Inequality of Farmers

基于气候变化农户决策适应理论和收入相对剥夺理论,本文利用中国家庭追踪调查2014—2018年数据,运用面板Tobit模型、面板Ordered-logit模型等方法实证检验了气候变化、收入流动对农户内部收入不平等的影响效应及传导机制。研究发现,一般气候变化显著抑制了农户内部收入不平等状况,而极端气候变化则拉大了农户内部收入不平等状况;农户收入向上流动会显著减缓农户内部收入不平等状况,而农户收入向下流动则显著拉大农户内部收入不平等状况。从两者交互效应来看,一般气候变化能够强化收入向上流动对农户内部收入不平等的减缓效应,主要源自于一般气候变化能够减缓收入向上流动农户的工资性收入不平等,而极端气候变化则弱化了收入向上流动对农户内部收入不平等的减缓效应。从收入结构不平等的作用逻辑来看,一般气候变化对农户内部收入不平等的抑制效应主要来源于农户普遍性非农就业减轻了贫困户的低收入“锁定”效应,从而缓解工资性收入不平等状况。而极端气候变化对农户内部收入不平等的拉大效应主要源自于极端气候变化造成了转移性收入差距的拉大。

Based on the theory of climate change adaptation and the theory of relative deprivation,this paper uses the data of the China Family Panel Studies 2014-2018,using panel Tobit model,panel Ordered-logit model to empirically test the impact of climate change and income mobility on the income inequality of farmers.The study finds that:normal climate change significantly suppresses income inequality of farmers,while extreme climate change increases the income inequality of farmers;upward mobility of farmers'income will significantly inhibit internal income inequality,while downward mobility of farmers'income has significantly increased the income inequality of farmers.From the perspective of interactive effects of the two,normal climate change can strengthen the mitigation effect of upward income mobility on rural household income inequality,while extreme climate change weakens the mitigation effect of upward income mobility on rural household income inequality.From the perspective of income structure inequality,normal climate change's restraining effect on rural household income inequality is mainly due to the fact that the general non-agricultural employment of rural households reduces the low-income"lock-in"effect of poor households,thus alleviating wage income inequality.The widening effect of extreme climate change on income inequality among farmers is mainly due to the widening of the transfer income gap caused by extreme climate change.