视频助理裁判的引入如何影响中国足球超级联赛净比赛时间

Effects of VAR on the Effective Playing Time in Chinese Super League

利用中国足球超级联赛(以下简称“中超”)引入视频助理裁判(video assistant referee, VAR)前后的比赛数据,研究VAR的引入如何影响中超的净比赛时间。通过计量回归模型发现,在控制其他变量不变的情况下,引入VAR导致场均净比赛时间增加了2.39 min,净比赛时间的占比增加了2.00%。分析认为,其原因在于VAR的引入导致了比赛参与各方行为的改变,这些改变导致了净比赛时间的增加。这体现在4个机制里,即VAR减少了争议事件的耗时,VAR减少了隐蔽性犯规,VAR暂停导致的视觉冲击使主办方和裁判更加关注比赛中的耗时时长从而使伤停补时阶段的时间有所增加,补时时间的增加又促使球队更少采用拖延时间的战术。通过对部分机制进行计量回归验证发现,引入VAR后场均犯规次数和红黄牌数量均显著减少,引入VAR使比赛的补时时间平均增加了0.94 min。而当比赛悬念较小,即比分差距在1球以上时,补时时间显著减少。这些发现说明,对于中超来说,引入VAR能够通过若干机制影响比赛参与方的行为,对净比赛时间带来正面的影响。同时,引入VAR后裁判更加倾向于增加比赛补时时间的行为不仅弥补了常规比赛阶段中的暂停时间,提升了球迷的观看体验,更会通过这种判罚的信号避免领先的球队过度使用拖延时间的战术,从而有助于提升联赛的水平和观众的观看体验。

Utilizing statistics from matches before and after the integration of the Video Assistant Referee(VAR)system in the Chinese Super League(CSL),this study investigated how the adoption of VAR impacts the effective playing time in the CSL.By means of a quantitative regression model,it was revealed that,while keeping other factors constant,the introduction of VAR led to an average increase of 2.39 minutes in effective playing time per game,corresponding to a 2.00%rise in effective playing time proportion.We concluded that the incorporation of VAR triggered alterations in the conduct of involved parties,consequently contributing to the extension of effective playing time.This phenomenon is attributable to four key mechanisms:VAR reduces the time spent on contentious incidents,minimizes covert fouls,VAR-induced stoppages result in visual effects,prompting organizers and referees to pay heightened attention to stoppage time,subsequently leading to an augmentation in injury time.This increase in injury time discourages teams from employing an intentional stalling tactic.Evaluating specific mechanisms through regression analysis indicated that,following the implementation of VAR,both the fouls per game and the red cards and yellow cards notably declined.The utilization of VAR resulted in an average extension of 0.94 minutes in injury time.Nevertheless,in cases where matches exhibited lower levels of suspense,namely when the goals-scored difference is above one,the duration of injury time substantially decreased.These findings underscore that,with regards to the CSL,the introduction of VAR positively affects the conduct of involved parties through a range of mechanisms,culminating in a favorable impact on effective playing time.Moreover,post-VAR introduction,referees display a heightened inclination to prolong injury time,effectively offsetting stoppage time during standard play,thus enhancing the spectator experience.Furthermore,this form of officiating deters leading teams from excessively employing time-wasting tactics,thereby contributing to the enhancement of the league’s quality and the spectator experience.