明清疫灾与五运六气相关分析

Analysis of the Correlation between the Epidemic Disaster of the Ming and Qing Dynasties and the Five Motions and Six Qi

目的:通过对明清疫灾的统计分析,探求疫灾发生与五运六气的关系。方法:通过统计1368—1911年各年疫灾发生的县数,确定各年疫灾范围,从岁运、司天之气、运气同化等多种角度,分析影响疫灾发生范围的运气因素。结果:明清疫灾整体呈波动上升趋势,时有高峰,辛巳年、戊子年是发生疫灾地域较广的年份,岁运为火运太过之年发生疫灾范围较广,阳明燥金司天之年发生疫灾范围相对较小,但差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05);天符年发生疫灾范围较非天符年发生疫灾范围广,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:五运六气是疫灾发生的重要影响因素之一,天符年更易发生疫灾,提示应注意此类特殊年份,关注当年异常气候变化,及时捕捉先兆预警信号,为疫灾的发生提前做好充分准备。

Objective:To explore the relationship between the occurrence of epidemic disasters and five motions and six qi through the statistical analysis of Ming and Qing dynasties.Method:By counting the number of counties affected by epidemic disasters in each year from 1368 to 1911,the scope of epidemic disasters in each year was determined.From various perspectives such as year evolutive phase,celestial manager qi,the assimilation of Yun Qi and so on,the factors affecting the scope of epidemic disasters were analyzed.Results:The epidemic disasters in the Ming and Qing dynasties showed a fluctuating upward trend,with occasional peaks.The Xinsi year and Wuzi year were the years in which epidemic disasters occurred in a wider area.The year evolutive phase was the year of excessive Huo Yun,following a wider scope of epidemics.In the year of Yangming Zaojinsitian,the area of epidemic disaster was relatively small.However,there was no significant difference(P>0.05).The epidemic disaster range in the special year of TianFu was wider than that in the other year and the results were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The five motions and six qi was one of the important influencing factors for the occurrence of epidemic disasters.Tianfu year was more prone to epidemic disasters.It was suggested to pay attention to such special years,pay attention to abnormal climate changes in that year,timely capture warning signals,and make sufficient preparations for the occurrence of epidemic disasters in advance.