基于随机SEIR模型比较不同筛查频率的核酸筛查效果

Comparison of Nucleic Acid Screening Effects Based on Random SEIR Model with Different Screening Frequencies

为了比较西安疫情期间两种核酸筛查频率的清零效果,提出了改进的随机SEIR模型,使用这种模型模拟疫情的变化过程,然后分析比较一天一次核酸和三天一次核酸两者的清零效果;该模型加入了核酸筛查效果,建立了考虑核酸筛查的随机SEIR模型,然后根据每日社区(不含隔离管控区域)新增患者人数使用线性回归对参数进行求解,利用小批量随机梯度下降法和余弦调节器对参数的求解过程优化,最后利用参数和模型模拟疫情的发展变化;对比模型一天一次核酸筛查阳性数量和实际数量,发现两者数量基本一致,所以该随机SEIR模型能够较好地模拟疫情的变化;使用该随机SEIR模型模拟一天一次核酸筛查和三天一次核酸筛查,并且计算一天一次核酸筛查和三天一次核酸筛查的核酸检测成本以及患者(仅计算核酸筛查发现和发病人群)的治疗费用,结果发现社区一天一次核酸筛查比三天一次核酸筛查拥有更好的清零效果,而且一天一次核酸筛查的成本更低。

In order to compare the effects of two nucleic acid screening frequencies of Xi’an epidemic on reducing the number of community nucleic acid positive patients to zero,an improved random SEIR model was proposed.This model was used to simulate the change process of the epidemic,and then the effects of once a day nucleic acid and once a three-day nucleic acid on reducing the number of community nucleic acid positive patients to zero were analyzed and compared.The effect of nucleic acid screening was added to the model,and a random SEIR model considering nucleic acid screening was established.Then,linear regression was used to solve the parameters according to the number of new patients in the community(excluding the isolation and control areas)every day.Small-batch random gradient descent method and cosine regulator were used to optimize the solving process of the parameters.Finally,parameters and models were used to simulate the development of the epidemic situation.Comparing the number of community nucleic acid positives found in the daily nucleic acid screening simulated by the model with the number of community nucleic acid positives actually found,it was found that two numbers were basically the same.Therefore,the random SEIR model can better simulate the changes of epidemic situations.The random SEIR model was used to simulate the epidemic changes of the two nucleic acid screening frequencies,and calculate the nucleic acid detection cost of once a day nucleic acid screening and once a three-day nucleic acid screening,as well as the treatment cost of patients(only patients detected in the nucleic acid screening and infected population were calculated).The results show that once a day nucleic acid screening has a better effect of reducing the number of community nucleic acid positive patients to zero than once a three-day nucleic acid screening,and the cost of once a day nucleic acid screening is lower.