中国省际城乡流动人口空间格局演变及与区域经济发展的关系

Interprovincial urban and rural floating population evolution of China and its relationship with regional economic development

城镇化中后期,中国人口流动的城乡结构出现重要转变,将对人口再分布和城镇化及区域发展产生重大影响。基于2010年和2020年全国人口普查数据划分了省际城—城、乡—城、城—乡和乡—乡4类流动人口,在识别其主流类型的基础上,通过流动率指标和计量模型考察了10年间流动人口主流类型的空间格局演变及与区域经济发展的关系。研究发现:(1)省际城乡流动人口规模大、增长快速的同时,乡—城流动占主导、城—城流动快速上升,这两类人口已成为中国城乡流动人口的主流类型。(2)城—城净流动格局中净流入区进一步向沿海三大中心集中,辽宁、新疆和云南也维持一定的净流入率,而绝大多数省份都属净流出区的结果塑造了沿海各具特色的三大流动圈以及东北、西北和西南地区内部联系的增强;乡—城净流动格局表现出沿海不同净流入区的“此消彼长”,以及新疆、辽宁净流入率上升引发其邻近省份净流出率下降的特征,该变化刻画了沿海流动圈连绵成带与变动各异的双重特性以及新疆、辽宁流动圈的发育。(3)区域经济发展对城—城和乡—城人口流动的影响都显著为正的作用随着时间的推移在增强,当加入流动存量后其对两类人口流动的促进作用出现分异;城—城和乡—城人口流动对全国经济发展、净流入对流入地经济发展有正向作用。

There are important changes in urban-rural structure of population mobility at the late-intermediate stage of urbanization in China,which will have a significant impact on population redistribution,urbanization and regional development.This paper divides the interprovincial urban and rural floating population into four mobility types by using the 2010 and 2020 censuses data,and on the basis of identifying the mainstream types,their spatial patterns evolution and the relationship with regional economic development are investigated through the mobility ratio indexes and regression models.The study results can be summarized as follows.(1)The urban and rural floating population is large and grows rapidly.Meanwhile,rural-urban mobility keeps the dominant position,and urban-urban mobility rises rapidly,these two population mobility types have become the mainstream ones of interprovincial urban and rural floating population in China.(2)In terms of the net mobility pattern of urban-urban floating population,the net-inflow areas are further concentrated in the three major coastal centers of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong,and Liaoning,Xinjiang and Yunnan are also maintained at a certain net-inflow rate,but most of the provincial-level regions are in the netoutflow areas.The major changes of the net mobility pattern of urban-urban floating population have shaped a spatial connection network.The main features of this network can be described as three cross-regional flow circles of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Pearl River Delta in coastal China.At the same time,the space connections within the regions are strengthening in northeast China,northwest China and southwest China.(3)The net mobility pattern of rural-urban floating population shows that in coastal areas,the net-inflow rate rises or decreases during the study period,while in inland areas,the increase in the net-inflow rate of Liaoning and Xinjiang leads to the decline in the net-outflow rate of their neighboring provinces.The changes of the net mobility pattern of rural-urban floating population depict the dual characteristics of continuous formation and different changes of the coastal flow circle,and the development of the inland flow circle in Xinjiang and Liaoning.(4)There is a mutual relationship between urban-urban and rural-urban population mobility and regional economic development.For regional economic development of both population mobility types,the impact is significantly positive and has been increasing.When we add the floating stock into the models,the positive effect of this variable has decreased in urban-urban mobility's model,while it still plays the first-place positive effect in rural-urban mobility's model.The two population mobility types have a positive effect on the national economic development and the inflow areas'economic development.