1978—2020年我国有效灌溉面积时空变化特征

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of effective irrigated area in China from 1978 to 2020

为准确评估我国不同地区有效灌溉面积的变化情况,采用趋势分析及常规数理统计方法,对1978—2020年我国31个省级行政区(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区。下同)的有效灌溉面积及相关农业统计数据进行研究,探究我国有效灌溉面积时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)1978—2020年我国有效灌溉面积总体不断增加,增加趋势的倾向率达到了631.5×10^(3)hm^(2)/a,有效灌溉面积与粮食总产量的相关系数达到0.96(P<0.001);(2)我国大部分省区市有效灌溉面积呈现出增加的趋势,其中东北地区增加最为明显,黑龙江省是全国有效灌溉面积增加最明显的省份,河北、内蒙古、山东、江苏、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、新疆、贵州和云南有效灌溉面积增加也较为明显;(3)部分发达省市有效灌溉面积呈现出减少的趋势,北京、天津和上海的有效灌溉面积在2000年后减少趋势较为明显;(4)从我国1978—2020年有效灌溉比例变化来看,北京、天津和新疆是我国有效灌溉比例最高的地区,达到了80%左右,南方地区的有效灌溉比例普遍较北方低,东北地区是我国有效灌溉比例增加最明显的地区。综上,1978—2020年我国粮食产量的增长与有效灌溉面积的稳定增加关系密切,北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东和陕西地区出现有效灌溉面积减少或增速减缓的趋势,其它省级行政区有效灌溉面积呈现增长趋势,黑龙江和内蒙古地区有效灌溉面积增加最为明显。建议有关部门在守住耕地红线的基础之上,继续加大对农业灌溉耕地设施的政策资金投入力度,落实和促进高标准农田建设工作,确保我国有效灌溉面积的稳定增长,保障我国的粮食生产安全。

To evaluate the change of the effective irrigated area in different parts of China accurately,effective irrigated area and related agricultural statistics of 31 provincial administrative regions(Data did not include those of HongKong,Macao and Taiwan regions.The same below)were used to explore the characteristics of effective irrigated area in China by using the trend analysis and conventional mathematical statistics method from 1978 to 2020.The results are as follows:(1)Overall,the effective irrigated area was constantly increasing.The increasing trend reached 631.5×10^(3) hm^(2)/a.The correlation coefficient between the effective irrigated area and the total grain output reached 0.96(P<0.001).(2)The effective irrigated area in most provincial regions in China showed an increasing trend.The northeast region increased the most significantly.Heilongjiang province had the most obvious increase in effective irrigated area in China.The effective irrigated area of Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Xinjiang,Guizhou and Yunnan Provinces increased also obviously.(3)The effective irrigated area in some developed provinces and cities showed a decreasing trend.The effective irrigated area in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai showed a significant decrease trend after 2000.(4)From 1978 to 2020,Beijing,Tianjin and Xinjiang were the regions with the highest effective irrigation ratio in China.The proportion of effective irrigation in the south was generally lower than that in the north.Northeast region had the most obvious increase of effective irrigation ratio in China.In conclusion,in the past nearly 43a the growth of grain production in China and the stable increase of effective irrigated area had close relationship.The effective irrigated area of Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Guangdong and Shaanxi had reduction growth trend,while other provincial administrative regions had growth trend.The effective irrigated area of Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia increased the most obvious.It is suggested that the relevant departments should keep the red line of cultivated land and increase the policy investment in agricultural irrigation facilities of cultivated land continuously.Finally,the strategy maker should imply and promote the construction of high-standard farmland to ensure the stable growth of effective irrigated area in China and the safety of food production in China.