近年来德国对华政策转型及趋势

On the Transformation and Trends of Germany’s Policy towards China in Recent Years

近几年来,以经济利益为主导的务实对华外交在德国愈发遭受质疑。中德经贸合作的压舱石效应不断弱化,德国亚洲战略重心逐步向其所谓“志同道合的民主国家”转移的倾向愈发明显,对开展对华合作的防范心理上升。对中国“制度性对手”和“经济竞争者”的认知推动德国政府调整对华政策,绿党及自民党入阁进一步冲击既往对华政策立场,价值观因素对德国涉华决策的影响上升,未来中德关系或面临下行风险。但是,中德在应对全球性挑战方面仍存在合作潜力,且德国对华友好声音及务实与平衡的外交传统仍在发挥作用,两国关系不会发生颠覆性变化。

In recent years,the pragmatic policy towards China primarily dominated by economic interests has been increasingly questioned in Germany.The stabilizing effect of Sino-German economic and trade cooperation has been weakening constantly,the trend of Germany’s strategic focus in Asia shifting gradually to its so-called“like-minded”democratic countries is increasingly evident,and it demonstrates a more defensive psychology towards its cooperation with China.The perception of China as“systemical rival”and“economic competitor”drives the adjustment of the Federal Government’s policy towards.Furthermore,the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party’s entry into the cabinet impacted its previous China policy,and value plays an increasingly important role in Germany’s decision-making regarding China.Sino-German relations may experience downward trends in the future.However,China and Germany still enjoy huge potential in dealing with global challenges,and Germany’s friendly voice towards China as well as its pragmatic and balanced diplomatic tradition is still in play.Therefore,subversive changes of the bilateral relationship are not to be expected.