经济政策不确定性对我国农产品进出口的影响

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Imports and Exports of Agricultural Products

为了系统地探究近年来我国经济政策不确定性变化对促进我国农产品进出口贸易产生的影响,基于2012—2020年我国农产品进出口量的月度数据和我国经济政策不确定性指数,借助TVP-VAR模型,研究不同种类农产品进口和出口的冲击反应及变动特征,并分析产生影响的原因。研究结果表明:我国经济政策不确定性对促进我国优势农产品的进出口贸易具有更为明显、直接的时变特征;我国经济政策不确定性对当前我国市场不同农产品及贸易商品的市场影响具有显著差别;在不同时点上的系列经济政策对我国农产品进口的影响表现为负,对我国农产品出口的影响为正。

In order to systematically explore the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty in recent years on imports and exports of agricultural products,based on monthly data on China’s import and export volume of agricultural products from January 2012 to December 2020 and China’s economic policy uncertainty index,shock response and change characteristics of imports and exports of different types of agricultural products are studied and the reasons for the impact are analyzed by using the TVP-VAR(Time Varying Parameter-Vector Auto Regression)model.The research results indicate that the uncertainty of China’s economic policies has a more obvious and direct time-variant characteristic in promoting the imports and exports of competitive agricultural products;It also has significant differences in the market impact on different agricultural products and trade commodities;The series of economic policies at different time points have a negative impact on China’s agricultural product imports and a positive impact on China’s agricultural product exports.