我国生猪价格区域差异时空特征及其驱动因素研究

Study on spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of regional differences of live pig prices in China

文章基于2011—2021年我国30个省(市、自治区)面板数据,使用空间自相关与冷热点分析法探究生猪价格差异的时空特征,并借助泰尔指数和空间杜宾模型剖析引起生猪价格区域差异的驱动因素。结果显示,我国生猪价格热点区与冷点区均表现为集中分布趋势,局部空间关联特征明显。生猪价格具有显著正空间自相关性,且存在跨区域的空间溢出效应。组内差异是引起生猪价格区域差异的主要原因。仔猪价格、牛肉价格、羊肉价格、通货膨胀水平是影响生猪价格波动的主要驱动因素。研究表明,生猪价格容易受到成本、供给、替代品等因素影响,应从供给侧结构性改革方面着手缩小生猪价格区域差异。

Based on panel data from 30 provinces(city,autonomous region)in China from 2011 to 2021,the study used spatial autocorrelation and cold hot spot analysis to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of pig price differences,and used the Thiel index and spatial Durbin model to analyze the driving factors that cause regional differences of live pig prices.The results showed that the hot spot and cold spot of live pig price in China showed a concentrated distribution trend,and the local spatial correlation features was obvious.The price of live pig had significant positive spatial autocorrelation and trans-regional spatial spillover effect.The intra-regional difference was the main reason for the overall regional difference of live pig price.Piglet price,beef price,mutton price and inflation level were the main driving factors affecting the price fluctuation of live pig.The study indicates that the price of live pigs is easily affected by cost,supply,substitutes and other factors,and it is necessary to narrow the regional differences in the price of live pigs from the aspect of supply-side structural reform.