粮食主销区耕地非粮化对粮食生产技术效率的影响及区域差异——以广东省为例

Impact of non-grain utilization of cultivated land on the technical efficiency of grain production and regional differences in major grain-consuming areas:A case study of Guangdong Province

基于广东省20个城市2001—2020年的统计数据,运用SFA模型测算广东省粮食生产技术效率,进一步借助Tobit模型分析耕地非粮化对粮食生产技术效率的影响及区域异质性。结果表明:(1)2001—2020年,广东省平均粮食生产技术效率呈稳步缓慢上升趋势,年均增长率0.15%,在珠三角核心区、沿海经济带和北部生态区间存在显著的空间分布异质性和时序变化趋同性。(2)耕地非粮化水平提升对粮食生产技术效率产生“倒逼效应”,但存在功能区差异,珠三角核心区和沿海经济带粮食生产技术效率的提升受非粮化的“倒逼效应”明显,在经济发展相对落后的北部生态区影响相对不显著。(3)不同水平的耕地非粮化对粮食生产技术效率的“倒逼效应”存在差异,相对而言,高度非粮化对粮食生产技术效率的促进作用更强。鉴于此,应注重耕地非粮化对粮食生产的影响,通过加强耕地非粮化治理,实行功能区差异化提升策略,与社会经济手段相互协调,稳定和提升主销区粮食生产技术效率,落实“藏粮于地”和“藏粮于技”战略目标。

In order to explore the realization path of“win-win”between food security and agricultural income increase,based on the panel data of 13 major grain producing regions in China from 2008 to 2020,the impact of agricultural insurance level on the consistency of grain output and agricultural income and its mechanism were investigated by using the coupling coordination model,panel regression model and two-stage least square method.The results showed that:(1)From 2008 to 2020,the level of coupling coordination between grain output and agricultural income in the main production areas fluctuated and rose,but it still did not break through the moderate coordination level.The level of coupling coordination in the main production areas was significantly different,showing a“three echelon distribution”;(2)The policy based agricultural insurance guarantee level for staple crops significantly improved the consistency between grain output and agricultural income.The consistency level increased by 0.835 for every 1 percentage point increase in the guarantee level;(3)The level of policy oriented agricultural insurance for major grain crops promoted the development of moderate scale operation of grain crops in major production areas.The moderate scale operation in both the total amount dimension and the efficiency dimension played a significant intermediary effect in the agricultural insurance to improve the consistency between grain output and agricultural income,with the intermediary effect accounting for 50.19%and 24.10%,respectively.Therefore,in order to achieve both food security and agricultural income increase,efforts should be made to improve the insurance level of staple food crops,consolidate and improve the income security mechanism for farmers'grain planting;Agricultural insurance will be used to boost the development of grain crops on a moderate scale,providing a new engine for grain production increase and agricultural income increase.