中国含糖饮料征税的收入分配效应评估——来自微观个体模拟分析的证据

Assessing the Income Distribution Effects of Taxing Sugar-sweetened Beverages in China:Evidence from Micro-individual Simulation Analysis

本文基于CHNS数据,运用两部模型和ELES模型,从调节收入分配视角对我国是否开征含糖饮料消费税进行模拟分析与可行性论证。研究发现,我国含糖饮料需求的价格弹性具有城镇低、农村高以及高收入低弹性、低收入高弹性的特点。当对中低收入群体征收税率为20%的含糖饮料消费税时,对较高收入群体应至少征收58.04%的税率,才具备较好的调节收入分配的累进性;模拟全国仅实行20%从价税税率时,含糖饮料消费税总税额就占2011年消费税税收总额的5.89%。本文认为,应当以缓解当前减税降费给政府带来的财政压力为契机,适时开征含糖饮料消费税并用以补充地方税收。

Based on the CHNS data,this paper uses the two-part model and the ELES model to simulate and analyze the feasibility of imposing a consumption tax on sugar-sweetened beverages(SSB)in China from the perspective of regulating income distribution.First of all,the article uses the two-part model to calculate the overall price elasticity of demand for SSB in China as-0.197,while the endogeneity treatment using the sample selection model results in the price elasticity of demand as-0.237.The absolute value of the demand elasticity of SSB for urban residents is smaller than that for rural residents,and the absolute value of the price elasticity of demand for SSB gradually decreases as the income stratum rises.The calculation with the help of the ELES model also concludes that the price elasticity of demand for SSB is characterized by lower elasticity in towns than in rural areas and lower elasticity in high income groups than in lowincome groups.This suggests that if a sugar tax is introduced,residents with higher income levels are taxed more.Secondly,whether imposing a SSB tax has the progressivity of regulating income distribution should consider whether the after-tax income gap of different income groups is reduced after the tax is imposed.Through the calculation of the tax burden formula,this paper finds that when a single proportional tax rate is adopted and the price is fully transmitted,at least 124% proportional tax must be set to make the Q5 sugar tax burden exceed Q1.With reference to the studies that analyze the income distribution effects of the consumption tax on cigarettes and alcohols,SSB are also divided into two categories and taxed at two different rates:Q4 and Q5 groups which choose to consume more beverages with higher sugar content are taxed at a higher rate of t_(2),while Q1,Q2 and Q3 groups which choose to consume more beverages with lower sugar content are taxed at a lower rate of t_(1).Assuming that t_(1) is set at 20%,the inequality of t_(2) can be determined according to the inequality of the tax burden.Combining the data for all available years,the overall t_(2) threshold to satisfy the sugar tax progressivity condition is calculated to be 58.04%.Finally,this paper also demonstrates that the introduction of a sugar tax can help guide healthy consumption and help the government generate significant tax revenues.It suggests that a sugar tax should be introduced at an appropriate time to supplement local tax revenue.