税制改革与僵尸企业治理:来自增值税税率简并下调改革的证据

Tax Reform and Zombie Enterprises Governance:Evidence from VAT Rate Consolidation and Reduction Reform

增值税改革的实体经济效应是重要的研究问题。以2015—2019年的中国A股上市公司为研究对象,本文研究发现:增值税税率简并下调改革使企业“僵尸化”概率降低30%,这一效果在需求弹性大的企业、制造业企业中更显著。进一步研究显示,增值税税率简并下调改革降低了僵尸企业的总税负和流转税税负,改善了僵尸企业的经营业绩,表现为经营活动现金流量和留存收益增加、利润率上升、应收账款收现期缩短,降低了僵尸企业对财政补贴的依赖;没有发现增值税税率简并下调通过降低杠杆率来减少企业“僵尸化”的风险。研究发现表明,降低税负改善企业经营业绩对于治理僵尸企业具有重要意义。

The real economy effect of VAT reform is an important research issue.This paper examines whether the tax reform can govern zombie enterprises and reveals the micro-mechanism of the VAT reform's effect on the real economy in the context of VAT rate consolidation and reduction reform.Taking China's A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2019 as samples,the study finds that VAT rate consolidation and reduction reform reduces the probability of zombification of enterprises by 30 per cent in economic significance,and this effect is more significant in enterprises with high elasticity of demand.Further research shows that the VAT rate consolidation and reduction reform reduces the total tax burden and turnover tax burden of zombie enterprises,improves their business performance,reduces their reliance on fiscal subsidies.No evidence is found that the VAT rate consolidation and reduction reform reduces the risk of zombification by reducing leverage.