1990年代以来东盟与域外主要国家的贸易演变特征

Evolution characteristics of the trade between the ASEAN and global major extra-territorial powers since the 1990s

东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)是全球最为重要的区域政治经济组织之一,作为全球发展中国家开展区域经济合作的典范之一,其已显示出巨大活力并在世界经济体系中扮演重要角色。冷战结束后,特别是随着东南亚区域经济一体化进程不断推进,东盟与域外主要国家即中国、美国、日本、印度、韩国(CAJIK)的经贸联系日益加强,成为CAJIK五国地缘博弈的主阵地。基于1992—2015年的贸易数据,对冷战结束以来东盟与CAJIK的贸易格局特征及其动态变化与国别差异进行了分析。结果表明(:1)1992—2015年,东盟与CAJIK贸易总额增加了5.6倍,达到万亿美元规模。期间,中国-东盟贸易总额增长最为迅速(超50倍);美、日、韩三国在东盟的对外贸易中占比虽较高,但总额增长缓慢。(2)新加坡、马来西亚和泰国是CAJIK在东盟中的传统贸易大国,越南在21世纪逐渐取代上述三国成为新的增长点。(3)1992年来,东盟国家中,中南半岛国家与CAJIK的贸易总额(11倍)增长速度明显高于海岛东南亚国家(4倍),中南半岛对外经贸合作更显活力。本文可在宏观层面把握东盟与域外国家贸易演变特征,并为开展国家间特别是边境地区地缘经济合作提供启示。

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) is one of the most important regional political and economic organizations in the world.It demonstrates tremendous vitality and plays a critical role in international economic systems.Since the end of the Cold War,especially with the continuous advancement of regional economic integration in Southeast Asia,the trade and economic relations between the ASEAN(including Brunei,Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam) and global major extraterritorial powers,i.e.,China,America,Japan,India,and South Korea(hereinafter referred to as CAJIK),have become increasingly strengthened and complex.With the yearly bilateral trade data of CAJIK and the ASEAN countries during 1992-2015,we analyzed the trade patterns and trade interdependence between CAJIK and the ASEAN since 1992.The results showed that:(1) Total trade volume increased by 5.6 times between the ASEAN countries and CAJIK.Specifically,the total trade between China and the ASEAN achieved the greatest development and increased by up to 50.6 times.However,the total trade volumes between America,Japan,and South Korea and the ASEAN grew slowly.(2) Of the ASEAN countries,Singapore,Malaysia,and Thailand were the traditional largest trading partners with CAJIK.However,Vietnam has become a new growth pole in ASEAN trade in the 21st century,which is predicted to be the largest trade country in Southeast Asia.(3) The trade between CAJIK and the countries of Mainland Southeast Asia(MSEA) increased much faster than those of Insular Southeast Asia(ISEA,including Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines and Singapore),about 11.2 times versus 4.1 times respectively,which highlights the greater potential of foreign economic and trade cooperation in MSEA.This study contributes to understanding the general evolution characteristics of trade between the ASEAN and extraterritorial countries,and provides inspiration for conducting research on geoeconomic cooperation and its effects between countries,especially in border areas.