自然变化和人类活动影响下区域虚拟水贸易定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Virtual Water Net Exports Under the Impacts of Natural Changes and Human Activities

虚拟水贸易受自然因素和人类活动因素共同影响,为了定量研究人类活动对虚拟水贸易的影响,提出新的定量对比分析法。将自然因素(降水量)调整成相同标准,按年份、年际定量分析外调水增减和最严格水资源管理政策对农业与工业部门虚拟水贸易的影响。用该方法对1997—2017年山东省虚拟水贸易进行定量分析,结果表明:随着经济发展,农业和工业虚拟水净输出量曲线分别呈不规则的U形和不规则的倒U形;虚拟水净输出会对当地水环境产生不利影响,1997年黄河断流,引黄水量减少使农业和工业虚拟水净输出量相对于未断流情况分别减少20.13%和49.67%;2017年南水北调水的输入使农业和工业虚拟水净输出量比未引长江水时分别增加1.32%和41.99%,最严格水资源管理政策的实施使农业和工业虚拟水净输出量分别减少10.01%和20.39%。

The virtual water trade in a region is affected by both natural factors and human activities.In order to quantitatively study the influence of human activities to the virtual water trade,a new quantitative comparative analysis method was proposed in this paper.By adjusting the natural climate factors into a uniform standard,this paper quantitatively analyzed the impact of the increase and decrease of external water diversion and the strictest water resources management policies on the virtual water trade in agricultural and industrial sectors by year and inter⁃year.Taking Shandong Province as an example,this study applied this method to make a quantitative analysis of virtual water trade in Shandong Province in the past 20 years.The results show that with the development of economy,the net output curves of agricultural and in⁃dustrial virtual water are U⁃shaped and irregular inverted U⁃shaped,respectively.Virtual net water output can adversely affect the local water environment.In 1997,when the Yellow River stopped flowing,the decrease of water diversion reduced the net virtual water output of agriculture and industry by 20.13%and 49.67%,respectively.In 2017,the input of the South⁃to⁃North Water Diversion Project increased the net virtual water output of agriculture and industry by 1.32%and 41.99%,respectively,compared with that without the diversion,while the implementation of the strictest water resources management policy reduced it by 10.01%and 20.39%,respectively.