基于逻辑斯谛分布的大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of Large⁃Scale Irrigation Area Water⁃Saving Renovation Projects Based on Logistic Distribution

大型灌区节水改造项目投资大,影响因素多,为了客观评价大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果,评判是否达到改造目标,从工程建设情况、节水增收效益、灌区管理改革与灌区可持续发展4个方面,筛选出25个评价指标,提出4级分级标准和方法,建立了大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果评价指标体系。采用逻辑斯谛分布确定隶属度函数,对最大隶属度法进行改进,提出了基于逻辑斯谛分布的大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果模糊综合评价方法。以河北省某大型灌区为例进行实例评价,得出该灌区节水改造项目实施效果的综合隶属度为0.5730,总体评价为良好(Ⅱ),评价结果与灌区节水改造项目实施的实际情况基本一致。

Large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects have large investment and many influencing factors.In order to objectively evaluate the implementation effect of large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects,it is necessary to judge whether the renovation goals are achieved.This paper selected 25 evaluation indicators from four aspects of project construction,water⁃saving and income⁃increasing benefits,irrigation area management reform and irrigation area sustainable development,put forward 4⁃level classification standards and methods and established a large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation project implementation effect evaluation system.The membership function was determined by logistic distribution,the maximum membership method was improved and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the implementation effect of large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects based on logistic distribution was proposed.Taking a large⁃scale irrigation area in Hebei Province as an example to conduct an example evaluation,it is concluded that the comprehensive membership degree of the implementation effect of the water⁃saving renovation project in this irrigation area is 0.5730 and the overall evaluation is good(Ⅱ).The evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual situation of the implementation of the water⁃saving renovation project in the irrigation area.