论高质量发展背景下教育决策现代化的循证选择

On the Modernization of Evidence⁃based Decision Making in Education for High⁃Quality Development

教育现代化是实现教育强国的关键一环,推动教育决策现代化是推进教育现代化的必由之路。近年来基于潜在结果框架的因果推断研究范式已迅速成为国际教育循证研究主流,并发展为循证教育研究的重要分析框架。利用因果推断工具厘清政策干预的因果效应是学界关注的焦点,现已形成直接对分组机制进行人为干预、寻找影响分组机制的外来因素、矫正由分组机制不明造成偏误三大类别。如何将有限范围的结论科学化推广是教育政策制定者面临的难点,因此实现由内部效度到外部效度的合理推断,依托普适性框架、采用样本矫正法促进循证研究落地是教育决策现代化的关键。

Building a strong education system relies on rigorous education policy research,and evidence⁃based education research serves as a cornerstone for modern education system.In recent years,causal inference research paradigm stemming from the potential outcome framework is quickly becoming the mainstream of evidence⁃based re⁃search in international education.Using these strategies to identify policy effects is a key research area,which is broadly organized in three categories:intervening directly on treatment assignment,distinguishing factors affecting treatment assignment,and minimizing bias stemming from unclear treatment assignment.To that end,promoting ev⁃idence drawn in specific contexts elsewhere is a critical challenge facing many policymakers,hence we need to war⁃rant applications of the Generalizability Framework and adoption of sample⁃based adjustment methods to establish the link between internal and external validity.