稻蟹田与常规稻田蚜虫发生动态数学模型

Dynamic Mathematical Model of Aphid Occurrence in Rice Crab Field and Conventional Rice Field

为进一步明确麦长管蚜在盘锦地区的发生与环境因子之间的关系,以及在2类稻田的发生危害情况。在系统调查麦长管蚜种群动态的基础上,利用多元回归法,得到麦长管蚜与环境因子间的数学模型,以及2类稻田上的发生分布情况。结果表明:盘锦地区2类稻田上发生危害的均为麦长管蚜;麦长管蚜在2类稻田的发生时间动态一致;在水稻穗上部分布比例约为80%,全株蚜量(y)与穗上部蚜量(x)之间的关系,常规田:y=1.25x+2.55,稻蟹田:y=1.19x+1.41;常规田麦长管蚜的发生与当地近7日平均温度存在显著的相关性。

In order to further elucidate the relationship between Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)occurrence and environmental factors in Panjin rice area,and the occurrence of Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)in two types of paddy fields.In this study,based on the systematic investigation of the population dynamics of Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi),the mathematical model of the relationship between Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)and environmental factors and the distribution of Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)in two types of paddy fields were obtained by using multiple regression method.The results showed that the two types of paddy fields in Panjin area were all affected by Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi);The occurrence time of Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)in the two types of paddy fields was consiste;Sitobion miscanthi(Takahashi)which distributed about 80%in the upper panicle.The relationship between the total plant aphid(y)and the upper panicle aphid(x)was as follows:y=1.25x+2.55 in the conventional field and 1.19x+1.41 in the rice and crab field.There was a significant correlation between the occurrence of aphid in the conventional field and the local average temperature in recent 7 days.This study provided a scientific basis for the prediction of the aphid in rice crab fields and conventional fields in Panjin area.