粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放趋势、驱动因素及减排路径

Trends,Drivers,and Mitigation of CO_(2)Emissions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

粤港澳大湾区是我国为建设世界级城市群提出的国家战略,其CO_(2)排放趋势、社会经济驱动因素和减排路径对区域经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究编制了2000-2019年粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放清单,采用对数平均迪氏指数法探究CO_(2)排放的关键驱动力。结果表明,粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放在2017年后明显放缓,已经与国内生产总值(GDP)增长脱钩。经济增长和能源强度分别是驱动和抑制粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放增加的主要因素。能源生产和重工业对粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放增长的推动作用降低,服务业正成为主要驱动力。粤港澳大湾区通过产业结构调整和升级实现低碳发展取得了显著成效。深圳和香港地区的产业升级以及深圳、广州和佛山的技术进步抑制了粤港澳大湾区CO_(2)排放增长。粤港澳大湾区各城市异质性增加了减排指标分配难度和制定区域碳中和路线图的复杂性。本研究提出了粤港澳大湾区城市分级减排策略和碳达峰碳中和建议,为制定粤港澳大湾区城市碳达峰和碳中和行动方案以及其他城市和地区的低碳发展提供了科学依据。

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)is a national initiative aimed at building a world-class city cluster in China and whose trends,socioeconomic drivers of CO_(2)emissions,and mitigation pathways are of great significance to the high-quality regional economic development.This study compiled the CO_(2)emission inventories of the GBA from 2000 to 2019 and explored the key drivers of CO_(2)emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method.The results showed that CO_(2)emissions in GBA slowed significantly after 2017 and have already been decoupled from gross domestic product(GDP)growth.Economic growth and energy intensity are the major factors driving and inhibiting the increase in GBA’s CO_(2)emissions,respectively.The energy production and heavy manufacturing sectors have reduced their roles in driving the growth of GBA’s CO_(2)emissions.GBA achieved remarkable results in low-carbon development through industrial restructuring and upgrading.Industrial upgrades in Shenzhen and Hong Kong region and technological advances in Shenzhen,Guangzhou,and Foshan have significantly curbed the growth in the GBA’s CO_(2)emissions.The heterogeneity of cities in the GBA greatly increases the complexity of formalizing the allocation of emission reduction tasks and developing a roadmap for regional carbon neutrality.Graded emission reduction strategies and carbon peaking and neutrality policy recommendations for GBA cities are proposed.This study provides a scientific basis for the development of an action program for carbon peaking and neutrality in GBA cities and low-carbon development plans for other cities and regions.