现代海洋产业体系发展水平测度及动态演进——基于四位协同视角

Development Level Measurement and Dynamic Evolution of the Modern Marine Industrial System:Based on the Synergetic Development Perspective

从系统和协同视角出发,构建“海洋实体经济—海洋科技创新—现代涉海金融—海洋人力资源”四位协同现代海洋产业体系理论框架,通过PVAR模型识别其敏感因素指标,采用序排列多边形面积法测度中国现代海洋产业体系发展水平,运用马尔科夫链分析其动态演进特征。研究发现:①经识别后确定现代海洋产业体系发展水平评价指标包括:海域集约利用指数、沿海地区货物进出口率、海洋产业结构高度化指数、海洋科研经费总额、人均研究与试验(R&D)经费、每万人海洋科技活动人员数、沿海地区金融业布局密度、地区投资效率、保费收入占GDP比重、沿海地区人均教育经费额、地区涉海专业高校数量、城镇单位在岗职工平均工资共12项;②2005—2019年现代海洋产业体系各维度发展水平呈明显上升趋势,随着时间演变各子系统整体差异逐渐增大,离散化程度增强;③现代海洋产业体系整体发展水平显著提升,各省(区、市)间发展差距缩小,呈现“由点带面”演变态势,最终形成以上海和广东为增长极的“一带双核”现代海洋产业体系发展格局;④Markov链结果表明现阶段现代海洋产业体系发展状态较稳定,存在俱乐部趋同现象;保持现有发展水平概率逐渐下降,向更高发展水平演进概率增大,“跨越式”阶段演变成为可能,未来位于高水平的省(区、市)数量不断增加。

From the perspective of system and synergetic development,this article constructs the theoretical framework of the modern marine industry system based on four aspects of synergetic development which are marine real economy,marine science and technology innovation,marine modern finance and marine human resources.This paper uses the panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model to identify and screen its sensitive factors.Based on the area method of sequential polygons and the Markov chain,it measures the development level of China's modern marine industrial system and analyzes its dynamic evolution characteristics.It's found that:1)It has 12 evaluation indexes for the development of the modern marine industrial system,which are the intensive use index of sea area,import and export rate of goods in coastal areas,index of advanced marine industrial structure,total marine research funds,per capita research and experiment(R&D)funds,number of marine science and technology activities per 10000 people,the distribution density of the financial industry in coastal areas,the regional investment efficiency,the proportion of insurance premium income in the gross domestic product(GDP),the per capita education expenditure in coastal areas,the number of professional colleges and universities related to the marine major,and the average wage of employees in urban unit,respectively.2)From 2005 to 2019,the development level of all dimensions of the modern marine industrial system showed an obviously upward trend,and the discretization degree of all subsystems gradually increased.3)The overall development level of the system had significantly improved,and the development gap between coastal provinces and cities had been narrowed.In the spatial pattern,it evolved from the point distribution pattern to the clustered distribution pattern and finally formed"one belt and dual cores"distribution pattern of the modern marine industrial system taking Shanghai and Guangdong as the growth pole.4)The Markov chain results showed that the development state of the modern marine industrial system was stable and there was club convergence,the probability of maintaining the current level of development decreases over time,while the probability of evolving to a higher level of development increase."Leapfrog"stage evolution would take place,the number of provinces and cities(districts)with high level will continue to increase in the future.